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Willem II vs Heracles — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Heracles
Heracles
J. Hornkamp 48'
T. Bruns 90'
L. Schoofs 62'
11/4/2022Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 14Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Willem II38%
×Draw24%
Heracles38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.58
Heracles
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 19 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Heracles
2.21

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Heracles
1.32

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
62%
Willem II or Heracles
76%
Draw or Heracles
62%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
19%
Heracles wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
79%
Willem II 2+ goals
47%
Willem II 3+ goals
21%
Heracles 1+ goals
79%
Heracles 2+ goals
47%
Heracles 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
50%
Heracles (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Heracles away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Heracles defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Heracles attack 2.21 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Willem II scores more
38%
level
24%
Heracles scores more
38%

Willem II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
L. SchoofsHeraclesHeracles · M
8.9

Match Events

48'
J. Hornkamp↳ N. Doodeman
62'
L. Schoofs↳ R. Roosken
70'
J. Bokila← J. Hornkamp
71'
T. Lesquoy← L. Woudenberg
80'
R. Cicilia← S. Armenteros
80'
L. Wehmeyer← E. Hansson
81'
R. Meerveld← D. Crowley
90+2'
J. Schroijen← N. Doodeman
90+2'
D. Mathieu← M. Svensson
90+1'
E. Sierra← N. Laursen
90'
T. Bruns

Possession

46%Willem

Shots

11Willem

Pass accuracy

49%Willem

Statistics

WillemHeracles
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots14
4Corners8
15Fouls11
Shots
11Total Shots14
5On Target7
5Off Target4
1Blocked3
7Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
403Total Passes473
297Accurate Passes366
74%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
15Fouls11
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Willem II vs Heracles

Heracles beat Willem II 2-1 in Eerste Divisie on November 4, 2022.

Goals: J. Hornkamp (48'), L. Schoofs (62'), T. Bruns (90').

Heracles controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.