Willem II 2–0 Heracles: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Willem II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Heracles

J. Hornkamp 17'

W. Dammers 15'

5/7/2022

Eredivisie · Round 32Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Willem II44%

×Draw26%

Heracles30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Willem IIExpected goals in this matchHeracles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Willem II

1.48

Heracles

1.19

Willem II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.97

creates per match

0.81

1.57

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Willem II

0.97

Heracles

0.81

allows per match

Willem II

1.57

Heracles

1.99

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Willem II+0.39scores more

Heracles-0.08on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Heracles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Willem II or draw

70%

Willem II or Heracles

74%

Draw or Heracles

56%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+

21%

Heracles wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals

77%

Willem II 2+ goals

43%

Willem II 3+ goals

19%

Heracles 1+ goals

70%

Heracles 2+ goals

33%

Heracles 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)

59%

Heracles (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.57 · 11 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.99 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 0.97 + Heracles defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 1.48

Heracles attack 0.81 + Willem II defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Willem II scores more

44%

level

26%

Heracles scores more

30%

Willem II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Köhlert

Willem II · M

8.9

Match Events

15'

W. Dammers

17'

J. Hornkamp↳ D. Köhn

46'

S. Armenteros← E. Sierra

46'

S. Sonnenberg← M. Rente

67'

E. Kabangu← J. Hornkamp

72'

K. Jakobsen← N. Laursen

80'

A. El Khayati← D. Crowley

80'

K. Ludewig← M. Svensson

90+2'

Sven Sonnenberg

90+4'

Sven SonnenbergCard upgrade

90+2'

J. Pal← M. Köhlert

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WillemHeracles

Overview

51%Possession49%

21Total Shots3

9Corners0

8Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots3

11On Target2

9Off Target0

1Blocked1

16Inside Box1

5Outside Box2

Passing

51%Possession49%

420Total Passes419

332Accurate Passes316

79%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2