Heracles 1–1 Willem II: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Willem II

A. Satriano 27'

J. Hornkamp 88'

2/17/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 25Erve Asito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heracles57%

×Draw21%

Willem II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.28

Heracles

2.14

Willem II

1.28

Heracles creates 67% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 59 away

3.21

creates per match

1.68

0.89

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Heracles

3.21

Willem II

1.68

allows per match

Heracles

0.89

Willem II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

78%

Heracles or Willem II

79%

Draw or Willem II

43%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

35%

Willem II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

88%

Heracles 2+ goals

63%

Heracles 3+ goals

36%

Willem II 1+ goals

72%

Willem II 2+ goals

37%

Willem II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

72%

Willem II (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 3.21 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 2.14

Willem II attack 1.68 + Heracles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Heracles scores more

57%

level

21%

Willem II scores more

22%

Heracles at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Verreth

Willem II · D

8.0

Match Events

20'

Sava Arangel Čestić

27'

A. Satriano↳ E. Hansson

60'

J. Bokila← E. Kabangu

62'

Pol Llonch

66'

S. Armenteros← A. Satriano

66'

I. Azzaoui← E. Hansson

71'

Jeremy Bokila

78'

D. Mathieu← M. Svensson

80'

Ruben Roosken

80'

L. Wehmeyer← N. Laursen

81'

M. Rente← T. Bruns

83'

J. Schroijen← L. Woudenberg

83'

F. Heerkens← Pol Llonch

88'

J. Hornkamp↳ M. Verreth

90+6'

Marco Rente

90+2'

M. Leš← N. Bakboord

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesWillem

Overview

45%Possession55%

11Total Shots15

3Corners7

15Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots15

4On Target4

3Off Target7

4Blocked4

4Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

45%Possession55%

359Total Passes440

239Accurate Passes317

67%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1