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Willem II vs Helmond Sport — Eerste Divisie 2018

Willem II
Willem II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
9/30/2025Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 9Koning Willem II Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Willem II60%
×Draw22%
Helmond Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.90
Helmond Sport
0.93

Willem II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 146 away

creates per match

Willem II
1.85
Helmond Sport
0.91

allows per match

Willem II
0.95
Helmond Sport
1.94

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
82%
Willem II or Helmond Sport
78%
Draw or Helmond Sport
40%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
35%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
85%
Willem II 2+ goals
56%
Willem II 3+ goals
29%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
61%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
24%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
77%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.94 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 1.85 + Helmond Sport defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.90

Helmond Sport attack 0.91 + Willem II defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Willem II scores more
60%
level
22%
Helmond Sport scores more
18%

Willem II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Willem II 1–0 Helmond Sport

Willem II beat Helmond Sport 1-0 in Eerste Divisie on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Koning Willem II Stadion in Tilburg.