Helmond Sport 2–2 Willem II: Result & Stats

Helmond Sport

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Willem II

12/21/2025

Eerste Divisie · Round 21GS Staalwerken Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Helmond Sport30%

×Draw25%

Willem II46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Helmond SportExpected goals in this matchWillem II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.59

Helmond Sport

1.23

Willem II

1.59

Willem II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 59 away

1.39

creates per match

1.68

1.51

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Helmond Sport

1.39

Willem II

1.68

allows per match

Helmond Sport

1.51

Willem II

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Willem II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Helmond Sport ↓

Willem II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Helmond Sport or draw

54%

Helmond Sport or Willem II

75%

Draw or Willem II

70%

Winning margin

Helmond Sport wins by 2+

12%

Willem II wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Helmond Sport 1+ goals

71%

Helmond Sport 2+ goals

35%

Helmond Sport 3+ goals

13%

Willem II 1+ goals

80%

Willem II 2+ goals

47%

Willem II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Helmond Sport (draw refunded)

39%

Willem II (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Helmond Sport at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.51 · 148 matches

Willem II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Helmond Sport attack 1.39 + Willem II defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Willem II attack 1.68 + Helmond Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Helmond Sport scores more

30%

level

25%

Willem II scores more

46%

Willem II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff