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Willem II vs Helmond Sport — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Willem II
Willem II
CANC
12:00
Helmond Sport
Helmond Sport
7/31/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Willem II43%
×Draw25%
Helmond Sport32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Willem II
1.55
Helmond Sport
1.31

Willem II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Willem II
2.10
Helmond Sport
1.11

allows per match

Willem II
1.50
Helmond Sport
1.00

finishing

Willem II+0.00on par
Helmond Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Willem II ↓

Helmond Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Willem II or draw
68%
Willem II or Helmond Sport
75%
Draw or Helmond Sport
57%

Winning margin

Willem II wins by 2+
21%
Helmond Sport wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Willem II 1+ goals
79%
Willem II 2+ goals
46%
Willem II 3+ goals
20%
Helmond Sport 1+ goals
73%
Helmond Sport 2+ goals
38%
Helmond Sport 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Willem II (draw refunded)
57%
Helmond Sport (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Willem II at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Helmond Sport away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Willem II attack 2.10 + Helmond Sport defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Helmond Sport attack 1.11 + Willem II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Willem II scores more
43%
level
25%
Helmond Sport scores more
32%

Willem II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Willem II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Willem II face Helmond Sport (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Willem II hosting Helmond Sport. Match starts July 31, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Willem II host Helmond Sport at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.