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Wigan vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
S. Hutchinson 57' (OG)
2/22/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan38%
×Draw28%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.19
Millwall
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 189 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Millwall
1.04

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Millwall
1.23

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
66%
Wigan or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
62%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
70%
Wigan 2+ goals
33%
Wigan 3+ goals
12%
Millwall 1+ goals
67%
Millwall 2+ goals
30%
Millwall 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
53%
Millwall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Millwall attack 1.04 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigan scores more
38%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
34%

Wigan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
C. KipreWiganWigan · D
7.8

Match Events

2'
Jed Wallace
37'
Jayson Molumby
43'
Murray Wallace
57'
S. HutchinsonOwn goal
64'
M. Bennett← A. Pearce
64'
M. Smith← J. Böðvarsson
76'
J. Gelhardt← A. Pilkington
78'
C. Mahoney← T. Bradshaw
86'
L. Evans← J. Lowe
89'
Cédric Kipré

Possession

52%Wigan

Shots

16Wigan

Pass accuracy

52%Wigan

Statistics

WiganMillwall
Overview
52%Possession48%
16Total Shots12
6Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
16Total Shots12
2On Target1
7Off Target9
7Blocked2
11Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
406Total Passes357
309Accurate Passes254
76%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Wigan vs Millwall

Wigan beat Millwall 1-0 in Championship on February 22, 2020.

Goals: S. Hutchinson (57' o.g.).

Wigan controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.