Millwall 2–2 Wigan: Result & Stats | Championship

Millwall

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Wigan

M. Smith 60'

S. Hutchinson 24'

A. Robinson 56'

A. Pilkington 3'

11/26/2019

Championship · Round 18The Den

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Millwall46%

×Draw27%

Wigan27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MillwallExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.00

Millwall

1.40

Wigan

1.00

Millwall creates 40% more chances

Season form · 185 home / 63 away

1.24

creates per match

0.97

1.04

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Millwall

1.24

Wigan

0.97

allows per match

Millwall

1.04

Wigan

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Millwall+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Millwall ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Millwall or draw

73%

Millwall or Wigan

73%

Draw or Wigan

54%

Winning margin

Millwall wins by 2+

22%

Wigan wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Millwall 1+ goals

75%

Millwall 2+ goals

41%

Millwall 3+ goals

17%

Wigan 1+ goals

63%

Wigan 2+ goals

26%

Wigan 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Millwall (draw refunded)

63%

Wigan (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Millwall at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.04 · 185 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Millwall attack 1.24 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wigan attack 0.97 + Millwall defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Millwall scores more

46%

level

27%

Wigan scores more

27%

Millwall at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Millwall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

J. Wallace

Millwall · M

7.9

Match Events

3'

A. Pilkington↳ K. Moore

24'

S. Hutchinson↳ J. Wallace

43'

Lewis MacLeod

46'

M. Smith← C. Mahoney

56'

A. Robinson↳ J. Garner

60'

M. Smith↳ S. Williams

63'

Shaun Hutchinson

67'

C. Kipre← A. Pilkington

76'

G. Massey← K. Moore

79'

Mahlon Romeo

79'

J. Skalák← B. Thompson

86'

A. O'Brien← T. Bradshaw

86'

J. Windass← J. Garner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MillwallWigan

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots14

7Corners5

7Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots14

5On Target7

3Off Target4

1Blocked3

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

408Total Passes312

280Accurate Passes205

69%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2