Wigan 1–0 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Wigan

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Millwall

J. Garner 15'

5/5/2019

Championship · Round 46DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan38%

×Draw28%

Millwall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WiganExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.10

Wigan

1.19

Millwall

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 189 away

1.16

creates per match

1.04

1.16

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Wigan

1.16

Millwall

1.04

allows per match

Wigan

1.16

Millwall

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par

Millwall+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Wigan or draw

66%

Wigan or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+

16%

Millwall wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals

70%

Wigan 2+ goals

33%

Wigan 3+ goals

12%

Millwall 1+ goals

67%

Millwall 2+ goals

30%

Millwall 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)

53%

Millwall (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.23 · 189 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Millwall defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Millwall attack 1.04 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wigan scores more

38%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

34%

Wigan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

N. Powell

Wigan · M

7.8

Match Events

15'

J. Garner

62'

J. Skalák← R. Tunnicliffe

64'

C. Jolley← A. Pilkington

67'

G. Alexander← L. Gregory

75'

C. McManaman← J. Garner

78'

B. Mitchell← S. Williams

90+1'

G. Roberts← R. James

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WiganMillwall

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots11

5Corners8

17Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots11

4On Target3

8Off Target5

3Blocked3

7Inside Box11

8Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

450Total Passes410

376Accurate Passes321

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Offsides1