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Wigan vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
N. Broadhead 63'
T. Smith 90+1', 85'
Ó. Estupiñán 78'
J. Greaves 15'
1/2/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan40%
×Draw27%
Hull City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.33
Hull City
1.17

Wigan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 156 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
67%
Wigan or Hull City
73%
Draw or Hull City
60%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Hull City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
74%
Wigan 2+ goals
38%
Wigan 3+ goals
15%
Hull City 1+ goals
69%
Hull City 2+ goals
33%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
55%
Hull City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hull City attack 1.19 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more
40%
level
27%
Hull City scores more
33%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
T. SmithHull CityHull City · F
8.2

Match Events

6'
Jean Michaël Seri
15'
J. Greaves↳ A. Sayyadmanesh
42'
Curtis Tilt
46'
N. Broadhead← C. Lang
46'
T. Smith← A. Sayyadmanesh
55'
T. Naylor← J. Cousins
55'
T. Aasgaard← A. Fletcher
63'
N. Broadhead↳ J. McClean
68'
R. Woods← R. Longman
75'
J. Magennis← J. Bennett
75'
O. Tufan← J. Seri
78'
Ó. Estupiñán
83'
L. Coyle← Ó. Estupiñán
83'
Tobias Figueiredo← C. Christie
85'
T. Smith↳ S. McLoughlin
90'
Jacob Greaves
90+1'
T. Smith↳ R. Slater

Possession

49%Wigan

Shots

6Wigan

Pass accuracy

50%Wigan

Statistics

WiganHull
Overview
49%Possession51%
6Total Shots9
7Corners5
10Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots9
1On Target4
3Off Target3
2Blocked2
3Inside Box7
3Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
459Total Passes495
376Accurate Passes413
82%Pass Accuracy83%
Discipline
10Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Championship: Wigan 1–4 Hull City

Hull City beat Wigan 4-1 in Championship on January 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Greaves (15'), N. Broadhead (63'), Ó. Estupiñán (78'), T. Smith (85', 90+1').

Hull City controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 6.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.