Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hull City vs Wigan — Championship 2018

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wigan
Wigan
Ó. Estupiñán 65'
D. Pelkas 21'
W. Keane 14'
10/5/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Hull City43%
×Draw27%
Wigan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.40
Wigan
1.12

Hull City creates 25% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 63 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.24
Wigan
0.97

allows per match

Hull City
1.27
Wigan
1.56

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
70%
Hull City or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
57%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
21%
Wigan wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
75%
Hull City 2+ goals
41%
Hull City 3+ goals
17%
Wigan 1+ goals
67%
Wigan 2+ goals
31%
Wigan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
59%
Wigan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 156 matches

Wigan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.24 + Wigan defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wigan attack 0.97 + Hull City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hull City scores more
43%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
30%

Hull City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. PowerWiganWigan · M
7.6

Match Events

14'
W. Keane↳ T. Aasgaard
21'
D. Pelkas↳ L. Coyle
23'
Lewie Coyle
23'
Josh Magennis
45+2'
Callum Elder
63'
G. Docherty← D. Pelkas
63'
R. Longman← D. Sinik
65'
Ó. Estupiñán↳ C. Elder
76'
G. Shinnie← T. Naylor
76'
T. Darikwa← T. Aasgaard
76'
C. Wyke← N. Broadhead
88'
A. Fletcher← J. Magennis
89'
Regan Slater
90'
Tobias Figueiredo← Ó. Estupiñán

Possession

43%Hull

Shots

11Hull

Pass accuracy

48%Hull

Statistics

HullWigan
Overview
43%Possession57%
11Total Shots12
9Corners5
13Fouls10
Shots
11Total Shots12
5On Target4
6Off Target5
0Blocked3
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box3
Passing
43%Possession57%
312Total Passes422
221Accurate Passes328
71%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
5Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs Wigan

Hull City beat Wigan 2-1 in Championship on October 5, 2022.

Goals: W. Keane (14'), D. Pelkas (21'), Ó. Estupiñán (65').

Wigan controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.