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Wigan vs Hull City — Championship 2018

Wigan
Wigan
FT
8 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
K. Dowell 65', 42', 32'
J. Williams 45+1'
K. Moore 40', 27'
J. Lowe 37'
K. Naismith 1'
7/14/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 44DW Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wigan40%
×Draw27%
Hull City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wigan
1.33
Hull City
1.17

Wigan creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 156 away

creates per match

Wigan
1.16
Hull City
1.19

allows per match

Wigan
1.16
Hull City
1.51

finishing

Wigan+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wigan ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wigan or draw
67%
Wigan or Hull City
73%
Draw or Hull City
60%

Winning margin

Wigan wins by 2+
18%
Hull City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wigan 1+ goals
74%
Wigan 2+ goals
38%
Wigan 3+ goals
15%
Hull City 1+ goals
69%
Hull City 2+ goals
33%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wigan (draw refunded)
55%
Hull City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wigan at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.51 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wigan attack 1.16 + Hull City defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hull City attack 1.19 + Wigan defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wigan scores more
40%
level
27%
Hull City scores more
33%

Wigan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wigan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
K. DowellWiganWigan · M
10.0

Match Events

1'
K. Naismith↳ K. Dowell
27'
K. Moore↳ J. Lowe
32'
K. Dowell↳ J. Lowe
33'
George Honeyman
35'
D. Batty← J. Bowler
37'
J. Lowe↳ N. Byrne
40'
K. Moore↳ N. Byrne
42'
K. Dowell
45'
Jon Toral
45+1'
J. Williams↳ J. Lowe
46'
T. Eaves← M. Wilks
46'
K. Stewart← Jon Toral
46'
R. Tafazolli← M. Pennington
56'
L. Evans← J. Williams
56'
G. Massey← K. Moore
56'
T. Pearce← A. Robinson
57'
K. Lewis-Potter← J. Magennis
65'
K. Dowell↳ N. Byrne
71'
G. Roberts← K. Dowell
78'
M. Dobre← L. Balogun

Possession

64%Wigan

Shots

14Wigan

Pass accuracy

54%Wigan

Statistics

WiganHull
Overview
64%Possession36%
14Total Shots10
4Corners3
11Fouls16
Shots
14Total Shots10
9On Target4
5Off Target2
0Blocked4
8Inside Box7
6Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
566Total Passes309
479Accurate Passes221
85%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls16
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Wigan vs Hull City

Wigan beat Hull City 8-0 in Championship on July 14, 2020.

Goals: K. Naismith (1'), K. Moore (27', 40'), K. Dowell (32', 42', 65'), J. Lowe (37'), J. Williams (45+1').

Wigan controlled possession (64%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at DW Stadium in Wigan.