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Weymouth Wales vs Deacons — Premier League 2019

Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
FT
2 – 0
Deacons
Deacons
2/11/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Valerie Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Weymouth Wales70%
×Draw16%
Deacons14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Weymouth Wales
2.75
Deacons
1.15

Weymouth Wales creates 139% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Weymouth Wales
2.87
Deacons
1.47

allows per match

Weymouth Wales
0.83
Deacons
2.63

finishing

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Weymouth Wales ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Weymouth Wales or draw
86%
Weymouth Wales or Deacons
84%
Draw or Deacons
30%

Winning margin

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
49%
Deacons wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
93%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
75%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
51%
Deacons 1+ goals
68%
Deacons 2+ goals
32%
Deacons 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
84%
Deacons (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Weymouth Wales at home — creates 2.87, concedes 0.83 · 46 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.63 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Weymouth Wales attack 2.87 + Deacons defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.75

Deacons attack 1.47 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Weymouth Wales scores more
70%
level
16%
Deacons scores more
14%

Weymouth Wales at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Weymouth Wales vs Deacons

Weymouth Wales beat Deacons 2-0 in Premier League on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at Valerie Playing Field in Bridgetown.