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Deacons vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
FT
0 – 6
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
6/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deacons16%
×Draw17%
Weymouth Wales67%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
1.20
Weymouth Wales
2.58

Weymouth Wales creates 115% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
Weymouth Wales
3.05

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
Weymouth Wales
0.76

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
33%
Deacons or Weymouth Wales
83%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
84%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
6%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
70%
Deacons 2+ goals
34%
Deacons 3+ goals
12%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
92%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
72%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
19%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.20

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Deacons scores more
16%
level
17%
Weymouth Wales scores more
67%

Weymouth Wales at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deacons vs Weymouth Wales

Weymouth Wales beat Deacons 6-0 in Premier League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.