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Deacons vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2024

Deacons
Deacons
FT
0 – 3
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
2/12/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Dover Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Deacons11%
×Draw15%
Weymouth Wales75%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
0.97
Weymouth Wales
2.79

Weymouth Wales creates 188% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.16
Weymouth Wales
3.04

allows per match

Deacons
2.53
Weymouth Wales
0.79

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–39%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
25%
Deacons or Weymouth Wales
85%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
89%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
3%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
62%
Deacons 2+ goals
25%
Deacons 3+ goals
7%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
94%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
76%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
12%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.16, concedes 2.53 · 19 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.79 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.16 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.97

Weymouth Wales attack 3.04 + Deacons defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Deacons scores more
11%
level
15%
Weymouth Wales scores more
75%

Weymouth Wales at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Deacons 0–3 Weymouth Wales

Weymouth Wales beat Deacons 3-0 in Premier League on February 12, 2025.

The match was played at Dover Playing Fields in Dover.