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Western Sydney Wanderers U23 vs Hills Brumbies — New South Wales NPL 2026

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
M. Younis 57'
A. Hammond 27'
6/1/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 17Wanderers Football Park Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2359%
×Draw20%
Hills Brumbies21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
2.23
Hills Brumbies
1.27

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 15 away

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.47
Hills Brumbies
0.80

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.74
Hills Brumbies
3.00

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par
Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Hills Brumbies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw
79%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Hills Brumbies
80%
Draw or Hills Brumbies
41%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
37%
Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
89%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
65%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
38%
Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
72%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
36%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
74%
Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.47 + Hills Brumbies defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Hills Brumbies attack 0.80 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
59%
level
20%
Hills Brumbies scores more
21%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
A. Hammond
30'
A. Hammond
57'
M. Younis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2–0 Hills Brumbies

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 beat Hills Brumbies 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on June 1, 2024.

Goals: A. Hammond (27'), M. Younis (57').

The match was played at Wanderers Football Park Academy in Sydney.