Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2–1 Hills Brumbies

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

FT

2 – 1

Hills Brumbies

6/19/2021

New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16Wanderers Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U2357%

×Draw20%

Hills Brumbies23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western Sydney Wanderers U23Expected goals in this matchHills Brumbies

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

1.48

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

2.37

Hills Brumbies

1.48

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 61 away

2.86

creates per match

1.43

1.52

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

2.86

Hills Brumbies

1.43

allows per match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23

1.52

Hills Brumbies

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 ↓

Hills Brumbies →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or draw

77%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 or Hills Brumbies

80%

Draw or Hills Brumbies

43%

Winning margin

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+

36%

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals

91%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals

68%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals

42%

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals

77%

Hills Brumbies 2+ goals

43%

Hills Brumbies 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)

71%

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

Hills Brumbies away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.87 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 2.86 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 2.37

Hills Brumbies attack 1.43 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more

57%

level

20%

Hills Brumbies scores more

23%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff