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Hills Brumbies vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23 — New South Wales NPL 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
Y. Okubo 80'
A. Bugarija 51'
A. Lual 13'
2/24/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hills Brumbies38%
×Draw22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U2340%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
1.75
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.53
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.79

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.80
Western Sydney Wanderers U23
1.98

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Western Sydney Wanderers U23+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
60%
Hills Brumbies or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
78%
Draw or Western Sydney Wanderers U23
62%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
20%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
83%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
52%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
25%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 1+ goals
83%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 2+ goals
53%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
49%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.98 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.53 + Western Sydney Wanderers U23 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.75

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 attack 1.79 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
38%
level
22%
Western Sydney Wanderers U23 scores more
40%

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western Sydney Wanderers U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Lual
51'
A. Bugarija
80'
Y. Okubo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hills Brumbies vs Western Sydney Wanderers U23

Western Sydney Wanderers U23 beat Hills Brumbies 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on February 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Lual (13'), A. Bugarija (51'), Y. Okubo (80').

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.