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Western Stima vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
0 – 2
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
4/27/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 26Moi Stadium (Kisumu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Western Stima31%
×Draw30%
Sony Sugar39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
0.96
Sony Sugar
1.11

Sony Sugar creates 16% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 39 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
Sony Sugar
0.97

allows per match

Western Stima
1.26
Sony Sugar
0.95

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
61%
Western Stima or Sony Sugar
70%
Draw or Sony Sugar
69%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
11%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
62%
Western Stima 2+ goals
25%
Western Stima 3+ goals
7%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
67%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
30%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
44%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.95 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Sony Sugar defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sony Sugar attack 0.97 + Western Stima defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Stima scores more
31%
level
30%
Sony Sugar scores more
39%

Sony Sugar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Sony Sugar

Sony Sugar beat Western Stima 2-0 in FKF Premier League on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Moi Stadium (Kisumu).