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Western Stima vs Sony Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
1 – 2
Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
9/17/2017FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 23Moi Stadium (Kisumu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Western Stima32%
×Draw31%
Sony Sugar37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
0.96
Sony Sugar
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 50 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.04
Sony Sugar
0.92

allows per match

Western Stima
1.19
Sony Sugar
0.88

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Sony Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Sony Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
63%
Western Stima or Sony Sugar
69%
Draw or Sony Sugar
68%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
12%
Sony Sugar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
62%
Western Stima 2+ goals
25%
Western Stima 3+ goals
7%
Sony Sugar 1+ goals
65%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
28%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
47%
Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.19 · 57 matches

Sony Sugar away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.88 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.04 + Sony Sugar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.96

Sony Sugar attack 0.92 + Western Stima defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Western Stima scores more
32%
level
31%
Sony Sugar scores more
37%

Sony Sugar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Western Stima 1–2 Sony Sugar

Sony Sugar beat Western Stima 2-1 in FKF Premier League on September 17, 2017.

The match was played at Moi Stadium (Kisumu).