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Sony Sugar vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Sony Sugar
Sony Sugar
FT
4 – 0
Western Stima
Western Stima
2/24/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 15Green Stadium (Awendo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Sony Sugar47%
×Draw29%
Western Stima24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sony Sugar
1.27
Western Stima
0.82

Sony Sugar creates 55% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sony Sugar
1.23
Western Stima
0.96

allows per match

Sony Sugar
0.68
Western Stima
1.31

finishing

Sony Sugar+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sony Sugar ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sony Sugar or draw
76%
Sony Sugar or Western Stima
71%
Draw or Western Stima
53%

Winning margin

Sony Sugar wins by 2+
21%
Western Stima wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sony Sugar 1+ goals
72%
Sony Sugar 2+ goals
36%
Sony Sugar 3+ goals
14%
Western Stima 1+ goals
56%
Western Stima 2+ goals
20%
Western Stima 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sony Sugar (draw refunded)
66%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sony Sugar at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.68 · 40 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sony Sugar attack 1.23 + Western Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.27

Western Stima attack 0.96 + Sony Sugar defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sony Sugar scores more
47%
level
29%
Western Stima scores more
24%

Sony Sugar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sony Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Sony Sugar 4–0 Western Stima

Sony Sugar beat Western Stima 4-0 in FKF Premier League on February 24, 2019.

The match was played at Green Stadium (Awendo).