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Western Stima vs Mathare United — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
2 – 1
Mathare United
Mathare United
H. Onyango 73'
Daddy 45'
T. Otieno 4'
1/8/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Western Stima40%
×Draw28%
Mathare United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.27
Mathare United
1.10

Western Stima creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 128 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.02
Mathare United
0.98

allows per match

Western Stima
1.23
Mathare United
1.51

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
68%
Western Stima or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
60%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
18%
Mathare United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
72%
Western Stima 2+ goals
36%
Western Stima 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
67%
Mathare United 2+ goals
30%
Mathare United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
56%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

Mathare United away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.02 + Mathare United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mathare United attack 0.98 + Western Stima defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western Stima scores more
40%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
32%

Western Stima at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
T. Otieno
45'
Daddy
73'
H. Onyango

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs Mathare United

Western Stima beat Mathare United 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 8, 2020.

Goals: T. Otieno (4'), Daddy (45'), H. Onyango (73').

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.