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Mathare United vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
CANC
11:00
Western Stima
Western Stima
5/2/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mathare United39%
×Draw28%
Western Stima33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.22
Western Stima
1.11

Mathare United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.12
Western Stima
0.96

allows per match

Mathare United
1.27
Western Stima
1.31

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
67%
Mathare United or Western Stima
72%
Draw or Western Stima
61%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
17%
Western Stima wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
70%
Mathare United 2+ goals
34%
Mathare United 3+ goals
12%
Western Stima 1+ goals
67%
Western Stima 2+ goals
30%
Western Stima 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
54%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.27 · 124 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.12 + Western Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.22

Western Stima attack 0.96 + Mathare United defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mathare United scores more
39%
level
28%
Western Stima scores more
33%

Mathare United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mathare United host Western Stima

May 2, 2020: Mathare United take on Western Stima in FKF Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mathare United host Western Stima at Nyayo National Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.