Western Stima 0–0 Mathare United: Result & Stats

Western Stima

FT

0 – 0

Mathare United

5/19/2019

FKF Premier League · Round 31Moi Stadium (Kisumu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Western Stima39%

×Draw28%

Mathare United33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western StimaExpected goals in this matchMathare United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.12

Western Stima

1.25

Mathare United

1.12

Western Stima creates 12% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 128 away

0.98

creates per match

0.98

1.26

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Western Stima

0.98

Mathare United

0.98

allows per match

Western Stima

1.26

Mathare United

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par

Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

Mathare United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw

67%

Western Stima or Mathare United

72%

Draw or Mathare United

61%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+

17%

Mathare United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals

71%

Western Stima 2+ goals

36%

Western Stima 3+ goals

13%

Mathare United 1+ goals

67%

Mathare United 2+ goals

31%

Mathare United 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)

54%

Mathare United (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Mathare United away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + Mathare United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mathare United attack 0.98 + Western Stima defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Western Stima scores more

39%

level

28%

Mathare United scores more

33%

Western Stima at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Western Stima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff