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Western Stima vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
FT
3 – 2
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
G. Ojunga 90+4'
Unknown 15'
M. Karamor 13'
B. Mukhekhe 90+5'
C. Shivachi 87'
7/20/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 25Nakuru Show ASK Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Western Stima30%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
0.99
AFC Leopards
1.22

AFC Leopards creates 23% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 144 away

creates per match

Western Stima
0.98
AFC Leopards
1.18

allows per match

Western Stima
1.26
AFC Leopards
1.01

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
59%
Western Stima or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
70%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
11%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
63%
Western Stima 2+ goals
26%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
70%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
34%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
42%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 0.98 + AFC Leopards defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

AFC Leopards attack 1.18 + Western Stima defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Western Stima scores more
30%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
41%

AFC Leopards at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Karamor
15'
87'
C. Shivachi
90+4'
G. Ojunga
90+5'
B. Mukhekhe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Western Stima vs AFC Leopards

Western Stima beat AFC Leopards 3-2 in FKF Premier League on July 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Karamor (13'), ? (15'), C. Shivachi (87'), G. Ojunga (90+4'), B. Mukhekhe (90+5').

The match was played at Nakuru Show ASK Ground in Nakuru.