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AFC Leopards vs Western Stima — FKF Premier League 2018

AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
FT
0 – 2
Western Stima
Western Stima
Unknown 90+5', 90+4'
12/18/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 3Moi International Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

AFC Leopards44%
×Draw29%
Western Stima27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Leopards
1.23
Western Stima
0.91

AFC Leopards creates 35% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 51 away

creates per match

AFC Leopards
1.15
Western Stima
0.96

allows per match

AFC Leopards
0.86
Western Stima
1.31

finishing

AFC Leopards+0.00on par
Western Stima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Leopards ↓

Western Stima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

AFC Leopards or draw
73%
AFC Leopards or Western Stima
71%
Draw or Western Stima
56%

Winning margin

AFC Leopards wins by 2+
19%
Western Stima wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AFC Leopards 1+ goals
71%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
35%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
13%
Western Stima 1+ goals
60%
Western Stima 2+ goals
23%
Western Stima 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
61%
Western Stima (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Leopards at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.86 · 145 matches

Western Stima away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Leopards attack 1.15 + Western Stima defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Western Stima attack 0.96 + AFC Leopards defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AFC Leopards scores more
44%
level
29%
Western Stima scores more
27%

AFC Leopards at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+4'
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: AFC Leopards 0–2 Western Stima

Western Stima beat AFC Leopards 2-0 in FKF Premier League on December 18, 2020.

Goals: ? (90+4', 90+5').

The match was played at Moi International Sports Centre in Nairobi.