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Western Stima vs AFC Leopards — FKF Premier League 2018

Western Stima
Western Stima
CANC
00:00
AFC Leopards
AFC Leopards
4/25/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 30Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Western Stima31%
×Draw29%
AFC Leopards40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Western Stima
1.02
AFC Leopards
1.21

AFC Leopards creates 19% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 144 away

creates per match

Western Stima
1.02
AFC Leopards
1.18

allows per match

Western Stima
1.23
AFC Leopards
1.01

finishing

Western Stima+0.00on par
AFC Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Stima ↓

AFC Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Western Stima or draw
60%
Western Stima or AFC Leopards
71%
Draw or AFC Leopards
69%

Winning margin

Western Stima wins by 2+
12%
AFC Leopards wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Western Stima 1+ goals
64%
Western Stima 2+ goals
27%
Western Stima 3+ goals
8%
AFC Leopards 1+ goals
70%
AFC Leopards 2+ goals
34%
AFC Leopards 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Western Stima (draw refunded)
43%
AFC Leopards (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Stima at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.23 · 44 matches

AFC Leopards away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Stima attack 1.02 + AFC Leopards defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

AFC Leopards attack 1.18 + Western Stima defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western Stima scores more
31%
level
29%
AFC Leopards scores more
40%

AFC Leopards at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFC Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Western Stima vs AFC Leopards — Match Preview

Western Stima face AFC Leopards on April 25, 2020 in this FKF Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Western Stima host AFC Leopards at Moi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.