Western Pride 1–0 Redlands United: Result & Stats

Western Pride

FT

1 – 0

Redlands United

3/16/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 7Briggs Road Sporting Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Western Pride40%

×Draw21%

Redlands United39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Western PrideExpected goals in this matchRedlands United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

2.03

Western Pride

2.04

Redlands United

2.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.64

creates per match

1.35

2.71

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Western Pride

1.64

Redlands United

1.35

allows per match

Western Pride

2.71

Redlands United

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Western Pride+0.00on par

Redlands United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Western Pride ↓

Redlands United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Western Pride or draw

61%

Western Pride or Redlands United

79%

Draw or Redlands United

60%

Winning margin

Western Pride wins by 2+

22%

Redlands United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Western Pride 1+ goals

87%

Western Pride 2+ goals

60%

Western Pride 3+ goals

33%

Redlands United 1+ goals

87%

Redlands United 2+ goals

60%

Redlands United 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Western Pride (draw refunded)

50%

Redlands United (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Western Pride at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Redlands United away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Western Pride attack 1.64 + Redlands United defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.04

Redlands United attack 1.35 + Western Pride defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Western Pride scores more

40%

level

21%

Redlands United scores more

39%

Western Pride at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Western Pride will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff