Redlands United 4–0 Western Pride: Result & Stats

Redlands United

FT

4 – 0

Western Pride

6/28/2019

Queensland NPL · Round 22Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Redlands United41%

×Draw23%

Western Pride37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Redlands UnitedExpected goals in this matchWestern Pride

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.67

Redlands United

1.77

Western Pride

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

1.00

2.34

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Redlands United

1.26

Western Pride

1.00

allows per match

Redlands United

2.34

Western Pride

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par

Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Western Pride →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw

63%

Redlands United or Western Pride

77%

Draw or Western Pride

59%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+

21%

Western Pride wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals

83%

Redlands United 2+ goals

53%

Redlands United 3+ goals

26%

Western Pride 1+ goals

81%

Western Pride 2+ goals

50%

Western Pride 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)

53%

Western Pride (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 1.26, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 1.26 + Western Pride defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Western Pride attack 1.00 + Redlands United defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Redlands United scores more

41%

level

23%

Western Pride scores more

37%

Redlands United at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff