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Redlands United vs Western Pride — Queensland Premier League 2026

Redlands United
Redlands United
FT
2 – 1
Western Pride
Western Pride
8/13/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 21Arthur & Allan Morris Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Redlands United48%
×Draw21%
Western Pride30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Redlands United
2.06
Western Pride
1.61

Redlands United creates 28% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Redlands United
2.19
Western Pride
1.66

allows per match

Redlands United
1.56
Western Pride
1.94

finishing

Redlands United+0.00on par
Western Pride+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Redlands United ↓

Western Pride →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Redlands United or draw
70%
Redlands United or Western Pride
79%
Draw or Western Pride
52%

Winning margin

Redlands United wins by 2+
28%
Western Pride wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Redlands United 1+ goals
87%
Redlands United 2+ goals
61%
Redlands United 3+ goals
34%
Western Pride 1+ goals
80%
Western Pride 2+ goals
48%
Western Pride 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Redlands United (draw refunded)
61%
Western Pride (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Redlands United at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Western Pride away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Redlands United attack 2.19 + Western Pride defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.06

Western Pride attack 1.66 + Redlands United defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Redlands United scores more
48%
level
21%
Western Pride scores more
30%

Redlands United at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Redlands United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Redlands United 2–1 Western Pride

Redlands United beat Western Pride 2-1 in Queensland Premier League on August 13, 2022.

The match was played at Arthur & Allan Morris Field in Brisbane.