West Ham 0–2 Leicester: Result & Stats

West Ham

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Leicester

H. Barnes 78'

J. Maddison 8'

11/12/2022

Premier League · Round 16London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

West Ham40%

×Draw24%

Leicester36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West HamExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.44

West Ham

1.53

Leicester

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 201 home / 173 away

1.45

creates per match

1.46

1.43

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

West Ham

1.45

Leicester

1.46

allows per match

West Ham

1.43

Leicester

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

West Ham or draw

64%

West Ham or Leicester

76%

Draw or Leicester

60%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+

19%

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals

78%

West Ham 2+ goals

45%

West Ham 3+ goals

20%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

42%

Leicester 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)

53%

Leicester (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 201 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.45 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.53

Leicester attack 1.46 + West Ham defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Ham scores more

40%

level

24%

Leicester scores more

36%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Ward

Leicester · G

8.2

Match Events

8'

J. Maddison↳ P. Daka

15'

N. Aguerd← K. Zouma

25'

D. Praet← J. Maddison

39'

Patson DakaPenalty confirmed

40'

Craig Dawson

55'

W. Ndidi← Y. Tielemans

60'

Lucas Paquetá

62'

Wilfred Ndidi

68'

Ayoze Pérez← K. Dewsbury-Hall

69'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

69'

N. Mendy← B. Soumaré

75'

Pablo Fornals← T. Souček

78'

H. Barnes↳ Ayoze Pérez

85'

Gianluca Scamacca

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestLeicester

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots9

7Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

18Total Shots9

6On Target6

9Off Target2

3Blocked1

12Inside Box4

6Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

483Total Passes422

374Accurate Passes330

77%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0