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West Ham vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
J. Bowen 48'
J. Lingard 44', 29'
K. Iheanacho 90+1', 70'
4/11/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

West Ham40%
×Draw24%
Leicester36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.54
Leicester
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 202 home / 170 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.46
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

West Ham
1.44
Leicester
1.61

finishing

West Ham+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
64%
West Ham or Leicester
76%
Draw or Leicester
60%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
20%
Leicester wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
79%
West Ham 2+ goals
45%
West Ham 3+ goals
20%
Leicester 1+ goals
76%
Leicester 2+ goals
42%
Leicester 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
53%
Leicester (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.44 · 202 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.46 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Leicester attack 1.45 + West Ham defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Ham scores more
40%
level
24%
Leicester scores more
36%

West Ham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
K. IheanachoLeicesterLeicester · F
8.7

Match Events

10'
Tomáš Souček
29'
J. Lingard↳ V. Coufal
30'
Aaron Cresswell
33'
Ricardo Pereira
44'
Jesse LingardGoal cancelled
44'
J. Lingard↳ J. Bowen
45'
Wesley Fofana
46'
Wilfred Ndidi
46'
L. Thomas← D. Amartey
48'
J. Bowen↳ T. Souček
53'
F. Balbuena← A. Cresswell
55'
Issa DiopGoal cancelled
59'
M. Albrighton← D. Praet
70'
K. Iheanacho↳ Ricardo Pereira
82'
B. Johnson← M. Noble
84'
S. Benrahma← J. Bowen
90'
Arthur Masuaku
90+1'
K. Iheanacho

Possession

36%West

Shots

4West

Pass accuracy

46%West

Statistics

WestLeicester
Overview
36%Possession64%
4Total Shots15
1Corners9
7Fouls13
Shots
4Total Shots15
4On Target5
0Off Target5
0Blocked5
4Inside Box10
0Outside Box5
Passing
36%Possession64%
365Total Passes629
267Accurate Passes527
73%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Premier League: West Ham 3–2 Leicester

West Ham beat Leicester 3-2 in Premier League on April 11, 2021.

Goals: J. Lingard (29', 44'), J. Bowen (48'), K. Iheanacho (70', 90+1').

Leicester controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.