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Leicester vs West Ham — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
West Ham
West Ham
Ricardo Pereira 57'
Y. Tielemans 45' (pen)
C. Dawson 90+1'
J. Bowen 10'
2/13/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Leicester45%
×Draw25%
West Ham30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.56
West Ham
1.24

Leicester creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 35 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.27
West Ham
1.06

allows per match

Leicester
1.42
West Ham
1.85

finishing

Leicester-0.07on par
West Ham-0.09on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
70%
Leicester or West Ham
75%
Draw or West Ham
55%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
23%
West Ham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
79%
Leicester 2+ goals
46%
Leicester 3+ goals
21%
West Ham 1+ goals
71%
West Ham 2+ goals
35%
West Ham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
60%
West Ham (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.42 · 5 matches

West Ham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.85 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.27 + West Ham defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.56

West Ham attack 1.06 + Leicester defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leicester scores more
45%
level
25%
West Ham scores more
30%

Leicester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Y. TielemansLeicesterLeicester · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
J. Bowen↳ I. Diop
18'
Ricardo Pereira
31'
L. Thomas← J. Justin
45'
Y. TielemansPenalty
57'
Ricardo Pereira↳ H. Barnes
60'
Aaron Cresswell
61'
Declan Rice
67'
R. Fredericks← V. Coufal
73'
A. Lookman← J. Maddison
79'
S. Benrahma← M. Lanzini
79'
N. Vlašić← Pablo Fornals
89'
J. Vestergaard← Y. Tielemans
90+1'
C. Dawson↳ J. Bowen

Possession

55%Leicester

Shots

13Leicester

Pass accuracy

51%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterWest
Overview
55%Possession45%
13Total Shots8
5Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots8
2On Target3
7Off Target2
4Blocked3
9Inside Box6
4Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
550Total Passes433
453Accurate Passes345
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Leicester vs West Ham

Leicester and West Ham drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Bowen (10'), Y. Tielemans (45' pen), Ricardo Pereira (57'), C. Dawson (90+1').

Leicester controlled possession (55%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.