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West Ham vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

West Ham
West Ham
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Leicester
Leicester
A. Ayew 63'
M. Lanzini 20'
J. Vardy 38'
R. Huth 7'
R. Mahrez 5'
3/18/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29London Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

West Ham42%
×Draw23%
Leicester35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Ham
1.74
Leicester
1.58

West Ham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

creates per match

West Ham
1.38
Leicester
1.65

allows per match

West Ham
1.51
Leicester
2.11

finishing

West Ham+0.03on par
Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Ham ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

West Ham or draw
65%
West Ham or Leicester
77%
Draw or Leicester
58%

Winning margin

West Ham wins by 2+
22%
Leicester wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

West Ham 1+ goals
82%
West Ham 2+ goals
52%
West Ham 3+ goals
25%
Leicester 1+ goals
79%
Leicester 2+ goals
47%
Leicester 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

West Ham (draw refunded)
54%
Leicester (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Ham at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Ham attack 1.38 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.74

Leicester attack 1.65 + West Ham defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

West Ham scores more
42%
level
23%
Leicester scores more
35%

West Ham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Ham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. LanziniWest HamWest Ham · M
8.5

Match Events

5'
R. Mahrez↳ J. Vardy
7'
R. Huth↳ M. Albrighton
18'
R. Snodgrass← W. Reid
20'
M. Lanzini
38'
J. Vardy↳ W. Ndidi
56'
Danny Drinkwater
63'
A. Ayew↳ A. Carroll
67'
E. Fernandes← Pedro Obiang
73'
A. Masuaku← A. Cresswell
76'
A. Musa← S. Okazaki
76'
I. Slimani← J. Vardy
87'
B. Chilwell← R. Mahrez

Possession

58%West

Shots

20West

Pass accuracy

55%West

Statistics

WestLeicester
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots11
6Corners5
10Fouls14
Shots
20Total Shots11
7On Target5
8Off Target4
5Blocked2
12Inside Box8
8Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
478Total Passes354
394Accurate Passes234
82%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls14
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Match Recap: West Ham vs Leicester

Leicester beat West Ham 3-2 in Premier League on March 18, 2017.

Goals: R. Mahrez (5'), R. Huth (7'), M. Lanzini (20'), J. Vardy (38'), A. Ayew (63').

West Ham controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at London Stadium in London.