West Brom 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Portsmouth

M. Johnston 26'

C. Bishop 56'

8/23/2025

Championship · Round 3The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

West Brom47%

×Draw29%

Portsmouth24%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.84

West Brom

1.28

Portsmouth

0.84

West Brom creates 52% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

0.94

0.75

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

West Brom

1.33

Portsmouth

0.94

allows per match

West Brom

0.75

Portsmouth

1.23

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.16scores less

Portsmouth+0.37scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

76%

West Brom or Portsmouth

71%

Draw or Portsmouth

53%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

21%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

72%

West Brom 2+ goals

37%

West Brom 3+ goals

14%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

57%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

21%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

66%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 23 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.33 + Portsmouth defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.28

Portsmouth attack 0.94 + West Brom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

West Brom scores more

47%

level

29%

Portsmouth scores more

24%

West Brom at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Johnston

West Brom · M

8.3

Match Events

7'

George Campbell

26'

M. Johnston↳ I. Price

43'

John Swift

56'

C. Bishop↳ J. Murphy

57'

L. Le Roux← J. Swift

57'

T. Waddingham← F. Bianchini

60'

K. Grant← M. Johnston

63'

Regan Poole

66'

Colby Bishop

70'

Alex Mowatt

76'

J. Williams← Z. Swanson

76'

T. Devlin← C. Bishop

78'

Luke Le Roux

80'

Thomas Waddingham

82'

J. Maja← I. Price

85'

M. Kosznovszky← A. Segecic

87'

T. Collyer← J. Molumby

87'

J. Wallace← T. Fellows

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestPortsmouth

Overview

64%Possession36%

13Total Shots8

0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.94

2Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots8

3On Target4

5Off Target3

5Blocked1

6Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

650Total Passes357

582Accurate Passes292

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

0.31Goals Prevented0.31

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

3Offsides2