Portsmouth 3–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

West Brom

E. Adams 49'

M. Alli 25'

C. Chaplin 20'

1/31/2026

Championship · Round 30Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Portsmouth45%

×Draw27%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Portsmouth

1.42

West Brom

1.06

Portsmouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 24 away

1.69

creates per match

1.20

0.92

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.69

West Brom

1.20

allows per match

Portsmouth

0.92

West Brom

1.15

-0.61scores less than expected

finishing

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.61scores less

West Brom-0.32scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

72%

Portsmouth or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

76%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

41%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

29%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

62%

West Brom (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.69, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.15 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.69 + West Brom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

West Brom attack 1.20 + Portsmouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more

45%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

28%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

E. Adams

Portsmouth · M

8.3

Match Events

11'

20'

22'

25'

46'

C. Styles← N. Phillips

46'

A. Gilchrist← D. Imray

46'

J. Maja← S. Iling Junior

49'

E. Adams↳ C. Chaplin

63'

J. Wallace← M. Johnston

70'

K. Anderson← C. Bishop

73'

A. Mowatt← J. Molumby

75'

M. Pack← A. Segecic

84'

J. Swift← E. Adams

84'

M. Kirk← M. Alli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthWest

Overview

50%Possession50%

20Total Shots4

2.57Expected Goals (xG)0.09

3Corners3

7Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots4

6On Target1

5Off Target1

9Blocked2

16Inside Box1

4Outside Box4

Passing

50%Possession50%

430Total Passes435

328Accurate Passes325

76%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.92Goals Prevented-0.92

Discipline

7Fouls11

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1