Portsmouth 0–3 West Brom: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

A. Mowatt 90+2', 51'

J. Maja 1'

9/15/2024

Championship · Round 5Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Portsmouth44%

×Draw26%

West Brom29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.10

Portsmouth

1.42

West Brom

1.10

Portsmouth creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

1.68

creates per match

1.17

1.04

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.68

West Brom

1.17

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.04

West Brom

1.15

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.48scores less

West Brom-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

71%

Portsmouth or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

56%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

21%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

76%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

41%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

67%

West Brom 2+ goals

30%

West Brom 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

60%

West Brom (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.04 · 15 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.68 + West Brom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

West Brom attack 1.17 + Portsmouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portsmouth scores more

44%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

29%

Portsmouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Mowatt

West Brom · M

9.9

Match Events

1'

9'

28'

35'

43'

51'

61'

H. Blair← P. Lane

61'

A. Kamara← A. Dozzell

62'

S. Silvera← J. Murphy

63'

Tom Fellows

67'

G. Diangana← J. Swift

67'

J. Wallace← T. Fellows

68'

U. Račić← J. Molumby

75'

E. Sørensen← C. Saydee

76'

R. Poole← T. McIntyre

80'

M. Johnston← K. Ahearne-Grant

80'

85'

90+1'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthWest

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots19

0.70Expected Goals (xG)2.27

10Corners4

18Fouls6

Shots

14Total Shots19

0On Target7

5Off Target7

9Blocked5

6Inside Box11

8Outside Box8

Passing

54%Possession46%

399Total Passes345

315Accurate Passes277

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

18Fouls6

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3

Championship: Portsmouth 0–3 West Brom

West Brom beat Portsmouth 3-0 in Championship on September 15, 2024.

Goals: J. Maja (1'), A. Mowatt (51', 90+2').

Portsmouth controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 19.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Portsmouth 0–3 West Brom