West Brom 0–0 Newcastle: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Newcastle

3/7/2021

Premier League · Round 27The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom39%

×Draw26%

Newcastle35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.27

West Brom

1.37

Newcastle

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 180 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.50

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Newcastle

1.03

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Newcastle

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Newcastle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

65%

West Brom or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

61%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

18%

Newcastle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

40%

West Brom 3+ goals

16%

Newcastle 1+ goals

72%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

53%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Newcastle defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Newcastle attack 1.03 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Brom scores more

39%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

35%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Townsend

West Brom · D

8.5

Match Events

57'

D. Gayle← J. Hendrick

83'

K. Ahearne-Grant← M. Phillips

84'

H. Robson-Kanu← M. Diagne

90+3'

A. Carroll← R. Fraser

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestNewcastle

Overview

52%Possession48%

13Total Shots9

9Corners7

11Fouls10

Shots

13Total Shots9

3On Target5

6Off Target2

4Blocked2

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

396Total Passes365

295Accurate Passes246

74%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Offsides1