Newcastle 0–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Newcastle

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

West Brom

M. Phillips 29'

4/28/2018

Premier League · Round 36St James' Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Newcastle48%

×Draw26%

West Brom26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NewcastleExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.04

Newcastle

1.51

West Brom

1.04

Newcastle creates 45% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 93 away

1.51

creates per match

0.83

1.26

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Newcastle

1.51

West Brom

0.83

allows per match

Newcastle

1.26

West Brom

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Newcastle+0.00on par

West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Newcastle ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Newcastle or draw

74%

Newcastle or West Brom

74%

Draw or West Brom

52%

Winning margin

Newcastle wins by 2+

24%

West Brom wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Newcastle 1+ goals

78%

Newcastle 2+ goals

44%

Newcastle 3+ goals

19%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Newcastle (draw refunded)

65%

West Brom (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Newcastle at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.26 · 175 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Newcastle attack 1.51 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.51

West Brom attack 0.83 + Newcastle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Newcastle scores more

48%

level

26%

West Brom scores more

26%

Newcastle at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Newcastle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Ritchie

Newcastle · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

M. Phillips↳ J. Livermore

37'

Jake Livermore

45'

Allan Nyom

58'

Jacob Murphy← P. Dummett

65'

I. Slimani← D. Gayle

68'

Mohamed Diamé

77'

G. Krychowiak← J. Rodriguez

78'

Joselu← Ayoze Pérez

82'

James McClean

90+4'

H. Robson-Kanu← S. Rondón

90'

J. Evans← J. McClean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NewcastleWest

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots9

5Corners1

8Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots9

2On Target2

10Off Target6

5Blocked1

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

585Total Passes339

470Accurate Passes222

80%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2