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West Brom vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

West Brom
West Brom
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Newcastle
Newcastle
11/28/2017Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom39%
×Draw26%
Newcastle35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.37
Newcastle
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 180 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.15
Newcastle
1.03

allows per match

West Brom
1.50
Newcastle
1.59

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Newcastle+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Newcastle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
65%
West Brom or Newcastle
74%
Draw or Newcastle
61%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
18%
Newcastle wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
75%
West Brom 2+ goals
40%
West Brom 3+ goals
16%
Newcastle 1+ goals
72%
Newcastle 2+ goals
36%
Newcastle 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
53%
Newcastle (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Newcastle defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.37

Newcastle attack 1.03 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

West Brom scores more
39%
level
26%
Newcastle scores more
35%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Brom vs Newcastle

West Brom and Newcastle drew 2-2 in Premier League on November 28, 2017.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.