West Brom 0–1 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Middlesbrough

H. Hackney 73'

10/1/2024

Championship · Round 8The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

West Brom38%

×Draw27%

Middlesbrough35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.25

West Brom

1.31

Middlesbrough

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 18 away

1.38

creates per match

1.63

0.87

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

West Brom

1.38

Middlesbrough

1.63

allows per match

West Brom

0.87

Middlesbrough

1.24

+0.01on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

West Brom+0.01on par

Middlesbrough-0.13scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

65%

West Brom or Middlesbrough

73%

Draw or Middlesbrough

62%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

17%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

73%

West Brom 2+ goals

38%

West Brom 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

71%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

36%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

52%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.87 · 33 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.24 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.38 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Middlesbrough attack 1.63 + West Brom defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

West Brom scores more

38%

level

27%

Middlesbrough scores more

35%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

H. Hackney

Middlesbrough · M

8.6

Match Events

34'

Alex Mowatt

54'

T. Fellows← J. Wallace

59'

Uroš Račić

63'

J. Molumby← U. Račić

63'

M. Johnston← J. Swift

73'

H. Hackney↳ R. McGree

76'

D. Burgzorg← E. Latte Lath

78'

C. Styles← T. Heggem

78'

L. Dobbin← K. Ahearne-Grant

82'

I. Jones← B. Doak

90+6'

Isaiah Jones

90'

G. McCormick← R. McGree

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestMiddlesbrough

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots15

1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.32

5Corners4

7Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots15

1On Target4

5Off Target10

5Blocked1

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

529Total Passes520

472Accurate Passes448

89%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.22Goals Prevented0.22

Discipline

7Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides6

Match Recap: West Brom vs Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on October 1, 2024.

Goals: H. Hackney (73').

West Brom controlled possession (51%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.

West Brom vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: West Brom vs Middlesbrough