Middlesbrough 2–1 West Brom: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

M. K. Sene 61'

D. Strelec 26'

A. Heggebo 90'

9/19/2025

Championship · Round 6Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Middlesbrough42%

×Draw28%

West Brom30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.05

Middlesbrough

1.28

West Brom

1.05

Middlesbrough creates 22% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

1.72

creates per match

1.42

0.69

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.72

West Brom

1.42

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.69

West Brom

0.85

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.05on par

West Brom-0.60scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

70%

Middlesbrough or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

58%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

19%

West Brom wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

72%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

37%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

28%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

58%

West Brom (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.85 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.72 + West Brom defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

West Brom attack 1.42 + Middlesbrough defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

42%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

30%

Middlesbrough at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

D. Strelec

Middlesbrough · F

7.6

Match Events

26'

D. Strelec↳ L. Ayling

42'

S. Silvera← G. Edmundson

46'

M. K. Sene← D. Strelec

61'

M. K. Sene↳ H. Hackney

62'

T. Collyer← A. Mowatt

62'

M. Johnston← J. Wallace

63'

A. Browne← T. Conway

76'

J. Maja← O. Diakite

80'

M. Whittaker← S. Nypan

80'

A. Kante← H. Hackney

90'

A. Heggebo↳ M. Johnston

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWest

Overview

41%Possession59%

9Total Shots15

0.96Expected Goals (xG)0.89

2Corners3

3Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target3

4Off Target6

1Blocked6

4Inside Box9

5Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

434Total Passes595

358Accurate Passes539

82%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

-0.42Goals Prevented-0.42

Discipline

3Fouls7

1Offsides5