Middlesbrough 2–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Middlesbrough

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

B. Doak 83'

H. Hackney 29'

1/21/2025

Championship · Round 28Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Middlesbrough47%

×Draw27%

West Brom26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MiddlesbroughExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.94

Middlesbrough

1.37

West Brom

0.94

Middlesbrough creates 46% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

1.60

creates per match

1.19

0.68

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Middlesbrough

1.60

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Middlesbrough

0.68

West Brom

1.14

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

Middlesbrough-0.10scores less

West Brom-0.35scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw

74%

Middlesbrough or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

53%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

75%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

40%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

16%

West Brom 1+ goals

61%

West Brom 2+ goals

24%

West Brom 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

64%

West Brom (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.68 · 20 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.60 + West Brom defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

West Brom attack 1.19 + Middlesbrough defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Middlesbrough scores more

47%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

26%

Middlesbrough at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

L. Ayling

Middlesbrough · D

7.5

Match Events

29'

H. Hackney↳ Neto Borges

65'

J. Swift← J. Molumby

66'

J. Wallace← K. Ahearne-Grant

78'

D. Cole← M. Johnston

79'

Dael Fry

82'

D. Barlaser← F. Azaz

83'

B. Doak↳ E. Latte Lath

90+1'

M. Forss← B. Doak

90+1'

L. Engel← D. Burgzorg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MiddlesbroughWest

Overview

43%Possession57%

14Total Shots14

0.90Expected Goals (xG)0.98

5Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

14Total Shots14

4On Target1

5Off Target7

5Blocked6

6Inside Box5

8Outside Box9

Passing

43%Possession57%

419Total Passes570

351Accurate Passes502

84%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

-0.89Goals Prevented-0.89

Discipline

13Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2