West Brom 1–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Leicester

S. Iling Junior 10'

N. Phillips 90' (OG)

9/26/2025

Championship · Round 7The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

West Brom45%

×Draw27%

Leicester28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

West Brom

1.40

Leicester

1.04

West Brom creates 35% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 12 away

1.41

creates per match

1.33

0.75

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

West Brom

1.41

Leicester

1.33

allows per match

West Brom

0.75

Leicester

1.40

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

West Brom-0.17scores less

Leicester-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

72%

West Brom or Leicester

73%

Draw or Leicester

55%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

22%

Leicester wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

75%

West Brom 2+ goals

41%

West Brom 3+ goals

17%

Leicester 1+ goals

65%

Leicester 2+ goals

28%

Leicester 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

62%

Leicester (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.40 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.41 + Leicester defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Leicester attack 1.33 + West Brom defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

West Brom scores more

45%

level

27%

Leicester scores more

28%

West Brom at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Iling Junior

West Brom · M

7.6

Match Events

-5'

Hamza Choudhury

10'

S. Iling Junior↳ A. Heggebo

46'

J. Carranza← J. James

47'

Nathaniel Phillips

61'

Julián Carranza

64'

J. Monga← S. Mavididi

70'

Jayson Molumby

72'

C. Styles← S. Iling Junior

72'

J. Maja← A. Heggebo

72'

B. De Cordova-Reid← L. Thomas

73'

V. Kristiansen← J. Ayew

81'

P. Daka← R. Pereira

86'

J. Wallace← M. Johnston

88'

Jeremy Monga

89'

T. Collyer← A. Mowatt

90+5'

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku

90'

Jannik Vestergaard

90'

N. PhillipsOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WestLeicester

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots13

1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.94

3Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots13

5On Target1

4Off Target9

2Blocked3

8Inside Box7

3Outside Box6

Passing

41%Possession59%

393Total Passes553

337Accurate Passes498

86%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.48Goals Prevented0.48

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

4Offsides1