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West Brom vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

West Brom
West Brom
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
9/13/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 1The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

West Brom35%
×Draw25%
Leicester40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.38
Leicester
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 170 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.15
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

West Brom
1.50
Leicester
1.61

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
60%
West Brom or Leicester
75%
Draw or Leicester
65%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
16%
Leicester wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
75%
West Brom 2+ goals
40%
West Brom 3+ goals
16%
Leicester 1+ goals
77%
Leicester 2+ goals
43%
Leicester 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
47%
Leicester (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leicester attack 1.45 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

West Brom scores more
35%
level
25%
Leicester scores more
40%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: West Brom vs Leicester

Leicester beat West Brom 3-0 in Premier League on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at The Hawthorns in West Bromwich.