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Leicester vs West Brom — Premier League 2026

Leicester
Leicester
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
K. Iheanacho 36'
J. Evans 26'
J. Vardy 23'
4/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 32King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Leicester50%
×Draw26%
West Brom25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Leicester
1.54
West Brom
1.00

Leicester creates 54% more chances

Season form · 169 home / 93 away

creates per match

Leicester
1.56
West Brom
0.83

allows per match

Leicester
1.18
West Brom
1.51

finishing

Leicester+0.00on par
West Brom+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Leicester or draw
75%
Leicester or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
50%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+
26%
West Brom wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals
79%
Leicester 2+ goals
45%
Leicester 3+ goals
20%
West Brom 1+ goals
63%
West Brom 2+ goals
26%
West Brom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)
67%
West Brom (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.18 · 169 matches

West Brom away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.51 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.56 + West Brom defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.54

West Brom attack 0.83 + Leicester defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Leicester scores more
50%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
25%

Leicester at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
J. EvansLeicesterLeicester · D
8.2

Match Events

23'
J. Vardy↳ T. Castagne
26'
J. Evans
36'
K. Iheanacho↳ J. Vardy
46'
S. Ajayi← C. Robinson
57'
Okay Yokuşlu
61'
M. Albrighton← W. Fofana
61'
H. Robson-Kanu← M. Diagne
72'
Ayoze Pérez← J. Maddison
73'
K. Ahearne-Grant← Matheus Pereira
79'
Kyle Bartley
85'
D. Praet← J. Vardy

Possession

72%Leicester

Shots

17Leicester

Pass accuracy

57%Leicester

Statistics

LeicesterWest
Overview
72%Possession28%
17Total Shots4
7Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots4
7On Target1
5Off Target3
5Blocked0
8Inside Box2
9Outside Box2
Passing
72%Possession28%
706Total Passes255
607Accurate Passes162
86%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
13Fouls12
0Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Premier League: Leicester 3–0 West Brom

Leicester beat West Brom 3-0 in Premier League on April 22, 2021.

Goals: J. Vardy (23'), J. Evans (26'), K. Iheanacho (36').

Leicester controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.