West Brom 3–1 Hull City: Result & Stats

West Brom

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

1/2/2017

Premier League · Round 20The Hawthorns

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

West Brom49%

×Draw26%

Hull City26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West BromExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.02

West Brom

1.51

Hull City

1.02

West Brom creates 48% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 39 away

1.15

creates per match

0.54

1.50

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

West Brom

1.15

Hull City

0.54

allows per match

West Brom

1.50

Hull City

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

West Brom or draw

74%

West Brom or Hull City

74%

Draw or Hull City

51%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+

25%

Hull City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals

78%

West Brom 2+ goals

44%

West Brom 3+ goals

19%

Hull City 1+ goals

64%

Hull City 2+ goals

27%

Hull City 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)

65%

Hull City (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.87 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Hull City defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.51

Hull City attack 0.54 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

West Brom scores more

49%

level

26%

Hull City scores more

26%

West Brom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff