Hull City 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

O. McBurnie 45' (pen)

12/20/2025

Championship · Round 22MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hull City30%

×Draw27%

West Brom42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.32

Hull City

1.07

West Brom

1.32

West Brom creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.31

creates per match

1.48

1.17

allows per match

0.84

creates per match

Hull City

1.31

West Brom

1.48

allows per match

Hull City

1.17

West Brom

0.84

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

-0.68scores less than expected

finishing

Hull City-0.23scores less

West Brom-0.68scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

58%

Hull City or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

70%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

12%

West Brom wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

66%

Hull City 2+ goals

29%

Hull City 3+ goals

9%

West Brom 1+ goals

73%

West Brom 2+ goals

38%

West Brom 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

42%

West Brom (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.84 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.31 + West Brom defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.07

West Brom attack 1.48 + Hull City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hull City scores more

30%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

42%

West Brom at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

C. Taylor

West Brom · D

7.6

Match Events

28'

Charlie Taylor

45+4'

Mohamed Belloumi

45+2'

C. Mepham← K. Bielik

45'

O. McBurniePenalty

46'

A. Hadziahmetovic← K. Joseph

50'

George Campbell

55'

Matt Crooks

66'

J. Maja← I. Price

67'

A. Gilchrist← G. Campbell

72'

B. Akintola← M. Belloumi

75'

Alfie Gilchrist

80'

Callum Styles

81'

J. Molumby← C. Taylor

81'

S. Iling Junior← M. Johnston

82'

Ryan Giles

84'

A. Famewo← L. Millar

85'

E. Destan← O. McBurnie

90+2'

Ivor Pandur

90+5'

Chris Mepham

90+1'

D. Gyabi← R. Slater

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullWest

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots13

1.29Expected Goals (xG)1.34

8Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots13

1On Target1

5Off Target6

4Blocked6

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box7

Passing

43%Possession57%

317Total Passes456

229Accurate Passes362

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

14Fouls17

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Match Recap: Hull City vs West Brom

Hull City beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on December 20, 2025.

Goals: O. McBurnie (45' pen).

West Brom controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.

Hull City vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hull City vs West Brom