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West Brom vs Hull City — Premier League 2026

West Brom
West Brom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
S. Berahino 78'
1/10/2015Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21The Hawthorns (West Bromwich)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

West Brom49%
×Draw26%
Hull City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

West Brom
1.52
Hull City
1.02

West Brom creates 49% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 38 away

creates per match

West Brom
1.15
Hull City
0.53

allows per match

West Brom
1.50
Hull City
1.89

finishing

West Brom+0.00on par
Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Brom ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

West Brom or draw
75%
West Brom or Hull City
74%
Draw or Hull City
51%

Winning margin

West Brom wins by 2+
25%
Hull City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

West Brom 1+ goals
78%
West Brom 2+ goals
45%
West Brom 3+ goals
20%
Hull City 1+ goals
64%
Hull City 2+ goals
27%
Hull City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

West Brom (draw refunded)
66%
Hull City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Brom at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.50 · 94 matches

Hull City away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Brom attack 1.15 + Hull City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hull City attack 0.53 + West Brom defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

West Brom scores more
49%
level
26%
Hull City scores more
25%

West Brom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
R. Brady← N. Jelavić
35'
Claudio Yacob
39'
T. Ince← A. Hernández
73'
V. Anichebe← B. Ideye
76'
C. Gardner← S. Sessègnon
78'
T. Huddlestone← S. Quinn
78'
S. Berahino↳ V. Anichebe

Possession

54%West

Statistics

WestHull
Overview
54%Possession46%
5Corners2
5Fouls13
Shots
3On Target1
4Off Target7
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: West Brom vs Hull City

West Brom beat Hull City 1-0 in Premier League on January 10, 2015.

Goals: S. Berahino (78').

West Brom dominated possession with 54% of the ball.

The match was played at The Hawthorns (West Bromwich).