West Adelaide 4–2 Adelaide Raiders: Result & Stats

West Adelaide

FT

4 – 2

Adelaide Raiders

2/26/2022

South Australia State League 1 · Round 2Adelaide Shores Football Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

West Adelaide41%

×Draw22%

Adelaide Raiders37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West AdelaideExpected goals in this matchAdelaide Raiders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.78

West Adelaide

1.86

Adelaide Raiders

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

2.00

creates per match

2.09

1.48

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

West Adelaide

2.00

Adelaide Raiders

2.09

allows per match

West Adelaide

1.48

Adelaide Raiders

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West Adelaide+0.00on par

Adelaide Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West Adelaide ↓

Adelaide Raiders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

West Adelaide or draw

63%

West Adelaide or Adelaide Raiders

78%

Draw or Adelaide Raiders

59%

Winning margin

West Adelaide wins by 2+

22%

Adelaide Raiders wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

West Adelaide 1+ goals

84%

West Adelaide 2+ goals

55%

West Adelaide 3+ goals

28%

Adelaide Raiders 1+ goals

83%

Adelaide Raiders 2+ goals

53%

Adelaide Raiders 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

West Adelaide (draw refunded)

52%

Adelaide Raiders (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West Adelaide at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.48 · 48 matches

Adelaide Raiders away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West Adelaide attack 2.00 + Adelaide Raiders defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.86

Adelaide Raiders attack 2.09 + West Adelaide defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

West Adelaide scores more

41%

level

22%

Adelaide Raiders scores more

37%

West Adelaide at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "West Adelaide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff